Since 1987, the English second division has employed a play-off system to decide the team that gains promotion to the top tier. The top two teams are automatically promoted, while the next four teams face off in a knockout competition, consisting of the semi-finals: third vs sixth and fourth vs fifth, and a subsequent final.
The play-offs are often labelled as a lottery, and with a look at the results of the play-offs from the 2008/09 season, we argue that this lottery is not sustainable in terms of on-the-pitch competitiveness. We begin our study at the 2008/09 season as this was the season which saw Germany re-introduce their own play-off system, which will be examined later. With this comparison in mind, we will look at the results of promoted clubs in the season following that which they gained promotion via the play-offs.
The play-off final is the most lucrative game in the English footballing calendar, with last year’s winners Aston Villa receiving at least £160 million in revenue. Financially, it is something that can potentially sustain a football club for the next five years at least. However, what effect does it have on the competitiveness of the Premier League? Since the 2008/09 season, the play-off winners have been relegated five times. Furthermore, QPR and Huddersfield both won promotion via the play-offs and finished 17th the following season. However, in the season after, both were resoundingly relegated with Huddersfield finishing bottom and collecting only 16 points (the third lowest points tally in Premier League history).
This suggests that play-off winners are uncompetitive and aren’t ready to compete at the highest level. It is also significant to note that last year’s winners Aston Villa are flirting with relegation with one game to play in the current Premier League season. So, why are the play-off winners largely unsuccessful, and how could this be corrected?
A closer look at the position of the play-off winners is noteworthy. Since the 2008/09 season, third and fifth have been promoted the most times with four play-off wins each, while fourth has only enjoyed two victories and sixth place only one. With over 50% of the winners finishing third or fourth, it is here that we offer a comparison to the German system. Does a team that finishes sixth in the league deserve a chance to gain promotion to the most competitive league in the world?
Yes, the excitement of the play-offs is something that has become commonplace in our end of season traditions, but when people constantly bemoan the gap between the best and worst in the Premier League, should we rethink the way we are formatting the lower divisions? With financial inequality becoming greater and greater, surely we should be doing more to make the league as competitive as possible.
The play-offs are often labelled as a lottery, and with a look at the results of the play-offs from the 2008/09 season, we argue that this lottery is not sustainable in terms of on-the-pitch competitiveness. We begin our study at the 2008/09 season as this was the season which saw Germany re-introduce their own play-off system, which will be examined later. With this comparison in mind, we will look at the results of promoted clubs in the season following that which they gained promotion via the play-offs.
The play-off final is the most lucrative game in the English footballing calendar, with last year’s winners Aston Villa receiving at least £160 million in revenue. Financially, it is something that can potentially sustain a football club for the next five years at least. However, what effect does it have on the competitiveness of the Premier League? Since the 2008/09 season, the play-off winners have been relegated five times. Furthermore, QPR and Huddersfield both won promotion via the play-offs and finished 17th the following season. However, in the season after, both were resoundingly relegated with Huddersfield finishing bottom and collecting only 16 points (the third lowest points tally in Premier League history).
This suggests that play-off winners are uncompetitive and aren’t ready to compete at the highest level. It is also significant to note that last year’s winners Aston Villa are flirting with relegation with one game to play in the current Premier League season. So, why are the play-off winners largely unsuccessful, and how could this be corrected?
A closer look at the position of the play-off winners is noteworthy. Since the 2008/09 season, third and fifth have been promoted the most times with four play-off wins each, while fourth has only enjoyed two victories and sixth place only one. With over 50% of the winners finishing third or fourth, it is here that we offer a comparison to the German system. Does a team that finishes sixth in the league deserve a chance to gain promotion to the most competitive league in the world?
Yes, the excitement of the play-offs is something that has become commonplace in our end of season traditions, but when people constantly bemoan the gap between the best and worst in the Premier League, should we rethink the way we are formatting the lower divisions? With financial inequality becoming greater and greater, surely we should be doing more to make the league as competitive as possible.
Aston Villa celebrate promotion to the Premier League last May after a 2-1 win against Derby
If there is a time to change the system, then it is now. Manchester City’s CAS verdict last week was described as ‘a bad day for football’ by Liverpool boss Jurgen Klopp, with the knock-on effects of severe financial inequality a serious possibility. If the financial gap is widening, then we should be making it harder to gain a spot in the league. If the gap off-the-field is becoming bigger then we should be making the playing field as level as possible on the pitch. The current play-off system is flawed and if we edged towards a German-type play-off system then we might start to see less relegations from the promoted sides.
It is worth offering a comparison between the play-off winners in the Championship and the automatically promoted clubs’ league position in the following Premier League season. Since 2008/09 the champions of the second tier have had the following league positions: 15th, 12th, 17th, 19th, 20th, 14th, 16th, 16th, 10th, 7th and 20th. Although they may not look outstanding, the champions have only been relegated three times. This is less than the five/potentially six (depending on Aston Villa’s finish to the season) relegations from Championship play-off winners.
The second automatically promoted club have fared equally well with three relegations as well also. The league positions of second place sides since 2008/09 have been: 9th, 11th, 12th, 14th, 16th, 19th, 13th, 19th, 15th and 18th with the 2018/19 runners-up Sheffield United currently in the fight for a European place.
There is a clear difference between the automatically promoted clubs and the play-off winners in the following Premier League season. The top two teams in the league are often deserving of their place, while the next promoted club tends to struggle. This is a direct correlation to the play-off system, which is influencing the quality of the Premier League.
Many play-off winners are coming up to inevitably come down, with current Premier League sides monotonously occupying similar mid to low table positions every year. This year’s Premier League is a great example. Norwich have already been relegated, with Aston Villa still on the brink of relegation. Both were promoted last year, which leaves only one relegation position left.
Teams like West Ham, Crystal Palace, Newcastle and Burnley know that they only need to finish above one more team to stay in the league as a result of the inferior quality of promoted teams, especially play-off winners. Therefore, a shift towards the German play-off system may even result in a growth of quality within the current teams in the Premier League. A harder format to gain promotion will change the league we know, and it would be for better, not worse.
Again, the differences in revenues between those Premier League teams at the top and those at the middle and bottom is sparse. To ensure the league maintains the highest possible level of general quality, it is desirable to have teams in the league who can somewhat compete financially and quality-wise – not against the big guns, but against lower/mid-table sides.
Having a team sneak into the playoffs by finishing fifth or sixth and ultimately getting promoted on the back of this is undesirable. These teams will be inconsistent and perform underwhelmingly at the highest level. While the play-offs are great at generating excitement and offering otherwise unsuspecting teams the chance of playing in the Premier League, they are a contributing factor to the demise in quality of England’s top tier.
It is worth offering a comparison between the play-off winners in the Championship and the automatically promoted clubs’ league position in the following Premier League season. Since 2008/09 the champions of the second tier have had the following league positions: 15th, 12th, 17th, 19th, 20th, 14th, 16th, 16th, 10th, 7th and 20th. Although they may not look outstanding, the champions have only been relegated three times. This is less than the five/potentially six (depending on Aston Villa’s finish to the season) relegations from Championship play-off winners.
The second automatically promoted club have fared equally well with three relegations as well also. The league positions of second place sides since 2008/09 have been: 9th, 11th, 12th, 14th, 16th, 19th, 13th, 19th, 15th and 18th with the 2018/19 runners-up Sheffield United currently in the fight for a European place.
There is a clear difference between the automatically promoted clubs and the play-off winners in the following Premier League season. The top two teams in the league are often deserving of their place, while the next promoted club tends to struggle. This is a direct correlation to the play-off system, which is influencing the quality of the Premier League.
Many play-off winners are coming up to inevitably come down, with current Premier League sides monotonously occupying similar mid to low table positions every year. This year’s Premier League is a great example. Norwich have already been relegated, with Aston Villa still on the brink of relegation. Both were promoted last year, which leaves only one relegation position left.
Teams like West Ham, Crystal Palace, Newcastle and Burnley know that they only need to finish above one more team to stay in the league as a result of the inferior quality of promoted teams, especially play-off winners. Therefore, a shift towards the German play-off system may even result in a growth of quality within the current teams in the Premier League. A harder format to gain promotion will change the league we know, and it would be for better, not worse.
Again, the differences in revenues between those Premier League teams at the top and those at the middle and bottom is sparse. To ensure the league maintains the highest possible level of general quality, it is desirable to have teams in the league who can somewhat compete financially and quality-wise – not against the big guns, but against lower/mid-table sides.
Having a team sneak into the playoffs by finishing fifth or sixth and ultimately getting promoted on the back of this is undesirable. These teams will be inconsistent and perform underwhelmingly at the highest level. While the play-offs are great at generating excitement and offering otherwise unsuspecting teams the chance of playing in the Premier League, they are a contributing factor to the demise in quality of England’s top tier.
After being promoted via the play-offs in 2007, Derby finished the 2007/08 Premier League season with record low 11 points
The method of promotion to the first tier in Germany is quite different to that in England. The team who finish third from bottom (16th) in the Bundesliga play 3rd place in the 2. Bundesliga in a two-legged match. The winners earn/retain a place in the Bundesliga.
The winner of the relegation play-off can be deemed worthy of a position in the Bundesliga for the next season due to the following: If the current Bundesliga side win, they are considered better than 3rd place in the 2. Bundesliga, and therefore good enough to have been automatically promoted from the second tier. If the current 2. Bundesliga side win, they are considered better than 16th place in the Bundesliga, and would therefore not have been automatically relegated. Such an idea of worthiness is not replicated in the English play-off system. Play-off winners do not need to prove that they are able to compete at the highest level.
This is very logical and has been implemented (along with the 18-team limit) to preserve the high-quality of the Bundesliga. So, since its re-introduction for the 2008/09 season, has it served this purpose? Does it ensure that those teams who remain in the league are good enough to do so? The relegation play-off is the equivalent of the play-off final. Essentially, the two teams most fit to be in the Bundesliga next season are facing off over two legs. By studying the results of these play-offs, we can assess their effectiveness.
An effective relegation play-off is one in which the winner is able to compete successfully at the top-level next season – something that, as noted, is not always seen in the English game. It must initially be noted that due to the match being between 16th in the top tier and 3rd in the second tier, the general quality of the winner will be relatively better than that of the winner of the English Championship play-offs.
In the 11 relegation play-offs spanning 2008/09 – 2018/19, only once has the winner been relegated the following season. This happened to Fortuna Dusseldorf, who, in 2011/12, beat Hertha Berlin 4-3 on aggregate in the relegation play-off. Even though they were relegated in 2012/13, it is feasible to suggest that they were in fact ready to compete in the Bundesliga, as they only finished 17th by one point.
On only three occasions, it has been the 2. Bundesliga side which emerged victorious in the relegation play-off. One of these was, again, Fortuna Dusseldorf. In the 2009 play-off, second tier Nuremburg won 5-0 against Energie Cottbus. Cottbus have not since returned to the Bundesliga, suggesting that the play-off relegated them to a level they deserved to be playing at too. Nuremburg also finished 16th in the 2009/10 season and won the ensuing relegation play-off.
Because it is so rare for the 2. Bundesliga incumbent to come out on top in the relegation play-off, we can conclude that when they do, it is due to the fact they are prepared for Bundesliga football. For example, last spring, Union Berlin beat VfB Stuttgart on away goals, thus awarding themselves their first ever place in Germany’s top tier. This season, they finished in a convincing 11th place after an impressive campaign.
We cannot reach similar conclusions about the Championship play-off winners. On 11 out of 11 occasions, a Championship team who finished between 3rd and 6th has been promoted. This is obvious, but worth stating nonetheless, as only on three occasions, has a 2. Bundesliga team finishing between 3rd and 6th been promoted (and, of course, it has been 3rd position all three times who were promoted). Championship teams don’t need to be ready for Premier League football to gain promotion. 2. Bundesliga teams do.
The winner of the relegation play-off can be deemed worthy of a position in the Bundesliga for the next season due to the following: If the current Bundesliga side win, they are considered better than 3rd place in the 2. Bundesliga, and therefore good enough to have been automatically promoted from the second tier. If the current 2. Bundesliga side win, they are considered better than 16th place in the Bundesliga, and would therefore not have been automatically relegated. Such an idea of worthiness is not replicated in the English play-off system. Play-off winners do not need to prove that they are able to compete at the highest level.
This is very logical and has been implemented (along with the 18-team limit) to preserve the high-quality of the Bundesliga. So, since its re-introduction for the 2008/09 season, has it served this purpose? Does it ensure that those teams who remain in the league are good enough to do so? The relegation play-off is the equivalent of the play-off final. Essentially, the two teams most fit to be in the Bundesliga next season are facing off over two legs. By studying the results of these play-offs, we can assess their effectiveness.
An effective relegation play-off is one in which the winner is able to compete successfully at the top-level next season – something that, as noted, is not always seen in the English game. It must initially be noted that due to the match being between 16th in the top tier and 3rd in the second tier, the general quality of the winner will be relatively better than that of the winner of the English Championship play-offs.
In the 11 relegation play-offs spanning 2008/09 – 2018/19, only once has the winner been relegated the following season. This happened to Fortuna Dusseldorf, who, in 2011/12, beat Hertha Berlin 4-3 on aggregate in the relegation play-off. Even though they were relegated in 2012/13, it is feasible to suggest that they were in fact ready to compete in the Bundesliga, as they only finished 17th by one point.
On only three occasions, it has been the 2. Bundesliga side which emerged victorious in the relegation play-off. One of these was, again, Fortuna Dusseldorf. In the 2009 play-off, second tier Nuremburg won 5-0 against Energie Cottbus. Cottbus have not since returned to the Bundesliga, suggesting that the play-off relegated them to a level they deserved to be playing at too. Nuremburg also finished 16th in the 2009/10 season and won the ensuing relegation play-off.
Because it is so rare for the 2. Bundesliga incumbent to come out on top in the relegation play-off, we can conclude that when they do, it is due to the fact they are prepared for Bundesliga football. For example, last spring, Union Berlin beat VfB Stuttgart on away goals, thus awarding themselves their first ever place in Germany’s top tier. This season, they finished in a convincing 11th place after an impressive campaign.
We cannot reach similar conclusions about the Championship play-off winners. On 11 out of 11 occasions, a Championship team who finished between 3rd and 6th has been promoted. This is obvious, but worth stating nonetheless, as only on three occasions, has a 2. Bundesliga team finishing between 3rd and 6th been promoted (and, of course, it has been 3rd position all three times who were promoted). Championship teams don’t need to be ready for Premier League football to gain promotion. 2. Bundesliga teams do.
Sebastian Andersson scored 12 league goals in Union Berlin's impressive inaugural Bundesliga season
In fact, further inspection of the teams involved in the relegation play-offs over the last 11 years show that teams will end up in the leagues they deserve to be in. This is important as it allows teams to promote consistency and stability, and build efficiently to develop at a steady pace in the future. All of this helps contribute to the higher quality of the top tier.
Since 2008/09, the Bundesliga team has won the play-off eight times. These eight times have featured six different Bundesliga teams. A lot of these teams have very big reputations and fanbases – and have since been successful in the Bundesliga.
For example, the 2008/09 Bundesliga champions, VfL Wolfsburg, featured in the relegation play-off in both 2016/17 and 2017/18. They emerged victorious both times, and in the two seasons since have finished 6th and 7th. Clearly, they are deserving of a place in the Bundesliga. If there was a format in Germany similar to that in England, we may have seen Wolfsburg relegated to the second tier – a league they have proven they do not deserve to be in. Also, they may have been replaced by a team undeserving of Bundesliga stature.
Smaller teams like Karlsruhe and Holstein Kiel, who have recently featured in relegation play-offs, would undoubtedly struggle in the Bundesliga. An English-style play-off system would not only have resulted in a club like Wolfsburg’s relegation, but guarantee a club like Karlsruhe’s promotion. This would diminish the quality of the top tier and could also result in future instability of both clubs involved.
The English play-offs are dangerous in the sense that teams not ready for the Premier League find themselves in it. An inevitable relegation the next season could cripple the club and, in the long term, be a lot more detrimental than staying in the Championship would have been. The German system ensures teams end up where they ought to be. A team can’t scrape into sixth position and get promoted; they must not only finish 3rd in the second tier, but prove their worth by beating a Bundesliga incumbent.
Over the last 11 years, 6th place in the Championship has averaged a points tally of 74. So, to finish sixth and have a chance of going up, you typically need to achieve 74 points. This works out as 1.6 points per game. In the same time frame, to finish 3rd in the 2. Bundesliga and have a chance of going up, you need to typically accrue 61 points. This equates to 1.8 points per game.
Since 2008/09, the Bundesliga team has won the play-off eight times. These eight times have featured six different Bundesliga teams. A lot of these teams have very big reputations and fanbases – and have since been successful in the Bundesliga.
For example, the 2008/09 Bundesliga champions, VfL Wolfsburg, featured in the relegation play-off in both 2016/17 and 2017/18. They emerged victorious both times, and in the two seasons since have finished 6th and 7th. Clearly, they are deserving of a place in the Bundesliga. If there was a format in Germany similar to that in England, we may have seen Wolfsburg relegated to the second tier – a league they have proven they do not deserve to be in. Also, they may have been replaced by a team undeserving of Bundesliga stature.
Smaller teams like Karlsruhe and Holstein Kiel, who have recently featured in relegation play-offs, would undoubtedly struggle in the Bundesliga. An English-style play-off system would not only have resulted in a club like Wolfsburg’s relegation, but guarantee a club like Karlsruhe’s promotion. This would diminish the quality of the top tier and could also result in future instability of both clubs involved.
The English play-offs are dangerous in the sense that teams not ready for the Premier League find themselves in it. An inevitable relegation the next season could cripple the club and, in the long term, be a lot more detrimental than staying in the Championship would have been. The German system ensures teams end up where they ought to be. A team can’t scrape into sixth position and get promoted; they must not only finish 3rd in the second tier, but prove their worth by beating a Bundesliga incumbent.
Over the last 11 years, 6th place in the Championship has averaged a points tally of 74. So, to finish sixth and have a chance of going up, you typically need to achieve 74 points. This works out as 1.6 points per game. In the same time frame, to finish 3rd in the 2. Bundesliga and have a chance of going up, you need to typically accrue 61 points. This equates to 1.8 points per game.
Led by a young Marco Reus, Borussia Mönchengladbach finished 4th and qualified for the Champions League in the 2011/12 season after winning the relegation play-off the season before, allowing them to stay in the Bundesliga
We can see that to have a chance of going up through the play-offs, you need to gain more points in the 2. Bundesliga than you do in the Championship. This suggests, relative to their leagues, that you need to be a better team to have a shot of promotion to the Bundesliga than you do for the Premier League. The fact that on only three occasions the 2. Bundesliga team has won the relegation playoff shows that even then, the play-off hopeful may not be of the desired quality to play in the first tier; whereas a team is promoted to the Premier League via the play-offs every season.
To preserve and promote the quality of the English top tier, a move over to a play-off system of the German kind is desirable. Though this doesn’t invoke as much excitement among football fans, it will benefit the English game. In general, it can be concluded that the smaller the number of teams in the second-tier play-offs, the better the quality of the first tier. The gulf in class and quality in the Italian league is perhaps greater than that of England’s, and this can be attributed to their even more expansive play-off system.
As proven, the German model ensures stability for clubs and for the respective leagues. While it may not be the most exciting method of deciding the league in which teams should play, it helps guarantee what is important: the survival and continuance of our football clubs.
To preserve and promote the quality of the English top tier, a move over to a play-off system of the German kind is desirable. Though this doesn’t invoke as much excitement among football fans, it will benefit the English game. In general, it can be concluded that the smaller the number of teams in the second-tier play-offs, the better the quality of the first tier. The gulf in class and quality in the Italian league is perhaps greater than that of England’s, and this can be attributed to their even more expansive play-off system.
As proven, the German model ensures stability for clubs and for the respective leagues. While it may not be the most exciting method of deciding the league in which teams should play, it helps guarantee what is important: the survival and continuance of our football clubs.
Written by - Will Murray and Ben Rowe
Edited by - 3-At-The-Back
Edited by - 3-At-The-Back