After the Premier League’s three-and-a-half-hour meeting on April 1, there was a universal agreement that the season must be completed when it is safe to do so. However, there are sacrifices that need to be made in order to make this happen and one of the central ones is playing the remainder of the 92 games at neutral venues. This has led to staunch opposition from the bottom six clubs, who have cited the importance of giving up home advantage when the financial significance of staying in the league is so rewarding. Paul Barber (Brighton chief executive) stated that "the disadvantages of us not playing the league's top teams in our home stadium and in familiar surroundings, even with 27,000 Albion fans very unlikely to be present at the Amex, are very obvious." Although Barber is most definitely hiding behind his own self-interest, he introduces an interesting argument about home advantage. Therefore, 3-At-The-Back asks what makes home advantage and how damaging to a team’s chances is it when they lose it?
When weighing up the components that make up home advantage, atmosphere and a home crowd are clearly some of the most important focuses. Across Europe, there are many grounds and crowds which are extremely hostile, making the home team ‘hard to beat.’ Many point to grounds such as Anfield, the San Siro and Signal Iduna Park as examples of crowd hostility and atmosphere where home advantage is maximised. Every ground is unique, and atmosphere can be created in different ways in different stadiums to make their home team comfortable and optimise their chances of success. However, when you take away this aspect away from home teams, there are eye-opening results.
Given the current situation, an interesting case study is the 21 matches that were played behind closed doors in Italy in 2007. This was due to an infamous clash behind Catania and Palermo fans where a policeman sadly died due to hooligan brutality and rioting outside the ground. As a result of this, the impact of home advantage took a huge hit and statistics show that much of this is linked to the referee. In the 21 matches that took place, the refereeing decisions drastically changed. The notable statistics were that the away team was penalised for fouls 23% less and was also awarded 26% fewer yellow cards. In addition to this, the away team was awarded 70% fewer red cards. An example of home bias with the presence of a crowd in England is shown by the fact that 61.86% of all penalties in the history of the Premier League have been awarded to the home team.
When weighing up the components that make up home advantage, atmosphere and a home crowd are clearly some of the most important focuses. Across Europe, there are many grounds and crowds which are extremely hostile, making the home team ‘hard to beat.’ Many point to grounds such as Anfield, the San Siro and Signal Iduna Park as examples of crowd hostility and atmosphere where home advantage is maximised. Every ground is unique, and atmosphere can be created in different ways in different stadiums to make their home team comfortable and optimise their chances of success. However, when you take away this aspect away from home teams, there are eye-opening results.
Given the current situation, an interesting case study is the 21 matches that were played behind closed doors in Italy in 2007. This was due to an infamous clash behind Catania and Palermo fans where a policeman sadly died due to hooligan brutality and rioting outside the ground. As a result of this, the impact of home advantage took a huge hit and statistics show that much of this is linked to the referee. In the 21 matches that took place, the refereeing decisions drastically changed. The notable statistics were that the away team was penalised for fouls 23% less and was also awarded 26% fewer yellow cards. In addition to this, the away team was awarded 70% fewer red cards. An example of home bias with the presence of a crowd in England is shown by the fact that 61.86% of all penalties in the history of the Premier League have been awarded to the home team.
These statistics show a distinct difference between decisions made by the referee with the presence of a home crowd and without a crowd, suggesting that referees are subconsciously influenced. Even though the remaining Premier League games are to be played at neutral stadiums, these numbers from 2007 are relevant for Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga teams. All these leagues are still planning on utilising all grounds to play the remaining home and away games.
Brighton and the other bottom six clubs won’t be able to play their remaining games at their home grounds, however Barber’s argument surrounding the significance of home advantage can be counteracted with this season’s introduction of VAR. With the introduction of VAR, the tendency of referees to fall to the emotion of the crowd has lowered, which is shown statistically in a Premier League context. For the first 27 seasons in the Premier League, the home win percentage in the Premier League was 46.6, whereas the away win percentage was 28.66. However, this season has seen the home win percentage drop to 45 and the away win percentage rise to 30. The disparity of these figures is becoming much more compressed. Also, this season is only 29 games old, meaning these percentages may get even tighter, especially with the continuation of VAR which is perhaps a leveller for away sides. Finally, revisiting the penalty statistics, it can be noted that in 2019/20 (VAR’s inaugural season), more penalties have been awarded to away teams than to home teams (33 to 32). This is the first season in Premier League history to have seen this.
Another aspect which many believe aids home advantage is the pitch. There are many pitch sizes in terms of area across the Premier League and the size can often be attributed to a team’s tactical approach. In fact, before 2012 there were no regulations for pitch size for Premier League teams, however in an attempt to standardise the pitches, the rule K21 was introduced to their manifesto. This rule stated that ‘Unless otherwise permitted by the board, in league matches the length of the pitch shall be 105 metres and its breadth 68 metres.’ Yet, the next rule stated that exceptions would be made ‘if it is impossible to comply with rule K21 due to the nature of the construction of the ground.’
In terms of using the pitch to increase the chances of the home side, the two Manchester clubs offer extremely good examples as they are both in the top four of biggest pitches in the league. This links to their attacking styles of play which advocate width and space to penetrate deep opposition defences. Although there are 10 clubs who adhere to the K21 regulations, there are many who have pitches a lot smaller than the regulation. It is notable that Wolves and Sheffield United have the smallest pitches in the league and an analysis of their styles can help see why. Both teams employ a high intensity pressing game which requires energy and stamina to be maintained for 90 minutes. Therefore, their small pitch means less running for their players but also aids the effectiveness of their press, given the tight and narrow nature of their pitches in comparison to others.
Brighton and the other bottom six clubs won’t be able to play their remaining games at their home grounds, however Barber’s argument surrounding the significance of home advantage can be counteracted with this season’s introduction of VAR. With the introduction of VAR, the tendency of referees to fall to the emotion of the crowd has lowered, which is shown statistically in a Premier League context. For the first 27 seasons in the Premier League, the home win percentage in the Premier League was 46.6, whereas the away win percentage was 28.66. However, this season has seen the home win percentage drop to 45 and the away win percentage rise to 30. The disparity of these figures is becoming much more compressed. Also, this season is only 29 games old, meaning these percentages may get even tighter, especially with the continuation of VAR which is perhaps a leveller for away sides. Finally, revisiting the penalty statistics, it can be noted that in 2019/20 (VAR’s inaugural season), more penalties have been awarded to away teams than to home teams (33 to 32). This is the first season in Premier League history to have seen this.
Another aspect which many believe aids home advantage is the pitch. There are many pitch sizes in terms of area across the Premier League and the size can often be attributed to a team’s tactical approach. In fact, before 2012 there were no regulations for pitch size for Premier League teams, however in an attempt to standardise the pitches, the rule K21 was introduced to their manifesto. This rule stated that ‘Unless otherwise permitted by the board, in league matches the length of the pitch shall be 105 metres and its breadth 68 metres.’ Yet, the next rule stated that exceptions would be made ‘if it is impossible to comply with rule K21 due to the nature of the construction of the ground.’
In terms of using the pitch to increase the chances of the home side, the two Manchester clubs offer extremely good examples as they are both in the top four of biggest pitches in the league. This links to their attacking styles of play which advocate width and space to penetrate deep opposition defences. Although there are 10 clubs who adhere to the K21 regulations, there are many who have pitches a lot smaller than the regulation. It is notable that Wolves and Sheffield United have the smallest pitches in the league and an analysis of their styles can help see why. Both teams employ a high intensity pressing game which requires energy and stamina to be maintained for 90 minutes. Therefore, their small pitch means less running for their players but also aids the effectiveness of their press, given the tight and narrow nature of their pitches in comparison to others.
Both Sheffield United and Wolves boast impressive away records, however this can be credited to the strength of their counter attacking and tactical setup on the road. Interestingly both sides mostly adopt a 5-3-2 formation for away games, with tireless full backs, a solid midfield base of technically gifted players and two strikers that are able to hold the ball up and make runs in behind. In fact, the system that is demanded of the players of both these clubs are high octave and their small home pitches aid the process of conserving energy. This is particularly important after playing this demanding system for away games on pitches much bigger than their own. Therefore, the process of conserving energy has helped Wolves stay competitive in Europe but has also helped Sheffield United maintain their high level of performance and results in the league.
An example of a team whose pitch is perhaps counterproductive is seen through considering the case of Brighton - remarkable for a club that is complaining about losing their home advantage! Brighton’s win percentage of 29% after 14 home games is joint worst and it is noteworthy that their pitch is the biggest of all Premier League clubs, with dimensions of 105m length and 69m width. Potter has been praised for trying to implement a passing approach at Brighton, however for a team of Brighton’s quality this has led to more problems than solutions, which is made worse by the enormity of their pitch.
A further aspect of home advantage that needs to be discussed is the familiar surroundings that come with a home ground. In response to Barber’s comments, Brighton manager Graham Potter agreed by saying that when you play at home ‘you still have an advantage because you’re familiar with the surroundings.’ He continued by stating: ‘its your pitch, its your home. That’s still there.’ Potter is right to an extent, given the familiarity of staff, occupying the same changing room and the subtleties which make your home ground unique in some way or another. Nevertheless, it is easy to see the self-interest creeping in again and Potter could be seen to be clutching at straws.
Through this, our hypothesis is that the impact of home advantage is deteriorating which has been accelerated by factors such as the implementation of VAR. Case studies like the Serie A games of 2007 are able to show a difference in results between a game with and without a crowd, showing that atmosphere still has an impact in today’s game. However, the overall trend is towards a decline in home advantage, and perhaps the neutral venues in Premier League will provide a further example to prove that being home or away is becoming less important in the evolution of football.
An example of a team whose pitch is perhaps counterproductive is seen through considering the case of Brighton - remarkable for a club that is complaining about losing their home advantage! Brighton’s win percentage of 29% after 14 home games is joint worst and it is noteworthy that their pitch is the biggest of all Premier League clubs, with dimensions of 105m length and 69m width. Potter has been praised for trying to implement a passing approach at Brighton, however for a team of Brighton’s quality this has led to more problems than solutions, which is made worse by the enormity of their pitch.
A further aspect of home advantage that needs to be discussed is the familiar surroundings that come with a home ground. In response to Barber’s comments, Brighton manager Graham Potter agreed by saying that when you play at home ‘you still have an advantage because you’re familiar with the surroundings.’ He continued by stating: ‘its your pitch, its your home. That’s still there.’ Potter is right to an extent, given the familiarity of staff, occupying the same changing room and the subtleties which make your home ground unique in some way or another. Nevertheless, it is easy to see the self-interest creeping in again and Potter could be seen to be clutching at straws.
Through this, our hypothesis is that the impact of home advantage is deteriorating which has been accelerated by factors such as the implementation of VAR. Case studies like the Serie A games of 2007 are able to show a difference in results between a game with and without a crowd, showing that atmosphere still has an impact in today’s game. However, the overall trend is towards a decline in home advantage, and perhaps the neutral venues in Premier League will provide a further example to prove that being home or away is becoming less important in the evolution of football.
Written by: Will Murray
Edited by: 3-At-The-Back
Edited by: 3-At-The-Back