A statistical preview of the three teams promoted from the Championship for the 2020/21 Premier League season in an effort to highlight what fans might expect from all of these sides as they look to succeed in the Premier League return.
LEEDS – CHAMPIONSHIP CHAMPIONS
It has been a 16-year absence in the Premier League for Leeds United. However, in Marcelo Bielsa, the Yorkshire club have finally found the man capable of bringing the the club back to the top flight. ‘El Loco’ – as Bielsa is often dubbed – has built a side with a clear identity, focusing on attacking, attractive football and news of his contract extension will be a delight for everyone at Elland Road.
The Bielsa Press
During Bielsa’s tenure, Leeds have become renowned for their high intensity press, habitually pressing teams in the attacking third of the pitch. This high-octane press has led to some impressive statistical results. The high press has resulted in allowing Leeds to dominate games, as reinforced with their possession statistics (averaging 59.6% per game – the highest in the division).
Key to this is the supreme levels of fitness drilled into Leeds’ players during pre-season. However, technical quality is paramount to keeping the ball, something Leeds demonstrated extremely well last term, with the second highest pass accuracy – a staggering 80.2% per game, only bettered by Fulham.
Bamford: A Prominent Goalscorer?
Patrick Bamford was Leeds’ top scorer last season – amassing 16 goals in the Championship. Whilst this is not a bad return, he massively underperformed his xG stats. According to xG, Bamford should have scored 24.34 goals in the 2019/20 season. xG may not always be the most reliable of sources but this is a clear underperformance and is a worrying trend.
Pablo Hernandez was critical in chance creation last season for Leeds, with 9 assists at a rate of 0.32 per game. Leeds in general scored 1.5 per game, yet underperformed xG as a whole, which was 2.13. This issue is, to an extent, a problem which lies at the feet of Bamford.
Leeds, however, are unlikely to accumulate as many chances as they did last season, and a failure to put them away could have grave consequences. To counter this, Leeds have bolstered their attacking options – bringing in Spanish forward Rodrigo for £27 million, a club record fee. If Bamford isn’t firing, Bielsa will no doubt look to the Spainard to provide adequate competition for Bamford.
LEEDS – CHAMPIONSHIP CHAMPIONS
It has been a 16-year absence in the Premier League for Leeds United. However, in Marcelo Bielsa, the Yorkshire club have finally found the man capable of bringing the the club back to the top flight. ‘El Loco’ – as Bielsa is often dubbed – has built a side with a clear identity, focusing on attacking, attractive football and news of his contract extension will be a delight for everyone at Elland Road.
The Bielsa Press
During Bielsa’s tenure, Leeds have become renowned for their high intensity press, habitually pressing teams in the attacking third of the pitch. This high-octane press has led to some impressive statistical results. The high press has resulted in allowing Leeds to dominate games, as reinforced with their possession statistics (averaging 59.6% per game – the highest in the division).
Key to this is the supreme levels of fitness drilled into Leeds’ players during pre-season. However, technical quality is paramount to keeping the ball, something Leeds demonstrated extremely well last term, with the second highest pass accuracy – a staggering 80.2% per game, only bettered by Fulham.
Bamford: A Prominent Goalscorer?
Patrick Bamford was Leeds’ top scorer last season – amassing 16 goals in the Championship. Whilst this is not a bad return, he massively underperformed his xG stats. According to xG, Bamford should have scored 24.34 goals in the 2019/20 season. xG may not always be the most reliable of sources but this is a clear underperformance and is a worrying trend.
Pablo Hernandez was critical in chance creation last season for Leeds, with 9 assists at a rate of 0.32 per game. Leeds in general scored 1.5 per game, yet underperformed xG as a whole, which was 2.13. This issue is, to an extent, a problem which lies at the feet of Bamford.
Leeds, however, are unlikely to accumulate as many chances as they did last season, and a failure to put them away could have grave consequences. To counter this, Leeds have bolstered their attacking options – bringing in Spanish forward Rodrigo for £27 million, a club record fee. If Bamford isn’t firing, Bielsa will no doubt look to the Spainard to provide adequate competition for Bamford.
Patrick Bamford was Leeds' top goalscorer in the league last season with 16. He faces a new challenge in the Premier League, but we cannot see past goals coming his way owing to his high attacking work rate.
No Ben White, no problem.
Last season, Leeds not only led the attacking stats, but the defensive ones also. Conceding only 35 at a rate of 0.76 per game, Leeds often neutralised opposition attacks. However, Brighton defender Ben White played a major role in this during his season-long loan from the Seagulls. Despite attempts from Bielsa to re-sign the centre-back, White has penned a new deal with Brighton. It is undoubtedly a huge blow to El Loco’s plans.
In response to this, Leeds have signed German defender Robin Koch from Freiburg. If he can fill the void left by White, he may be one of the signings of the window. The only stumbling block is his lack of experience in English football, so will have to generate a strong rapport with club captain Liam Cooper at the heart of defence.
How will Leeds perform?
It is unlikely, after spending two years trying to perfect it, that Bielsa and Leeds will abandon the system that acquired them Premier League status. If the side, with minimal experience at this level, can carry on where they left off last term, it would not be surprising to see Leeds distance themselves from the drop zone and enjoy a comfortable, if not spectacular, return to the Premier League. However, should the absence of Ben White lead to a leaky defence, accompanied by a sporadically scoring pair of Bamford and Rodrigo, Leeds could find themselves scrapping for survival in a division they’ve waited 16 years to return to.
Regardless of how successful Bielsa’s Leeds are, they will certainly be an enjoyable side to watch for the neutral assuming Bielsa sticks to his favoured high intensity, attack-minded football.
Last season, Leeds not only led the attacking stats, but the defensive ones also. Conceding only 35 at a rate of 0.76 per game, Leeds often neutralised opposition attacks. However, Brighton defender Ben White played a major role in this during his season-long loan from the Seagulls. Despite attempts from Bielsa to re-sign the centre-back, White has penned a new deal with Brighton. It is undoubtedly a huge blow to El Loco’s plans.
In response to this, Leeds have signed German defender Robin Koch from Freiburg. If he can fill the void left by White, he may be one of the signings of the window. The only stumbling block is his lack of experience in English football, so will have to generate a strong rapport with club captain Liam Cooper at the heart of defence.
How will Leeds perform?
It is unlikely, after spending two years trying to perfect it, that Bielsa and Leeds will abandon the system that acquired them Premier League status. If the side, with minimal experience at this level, can carry on where they left off last term, it would not be surprising to see Leeds distance themselves from the drop zone and enjoy a comfortable, if not spectacular, return to the Premier League. However, should the absence of Ben White lead to a leaky defence, accompanied by a sporadically scoring pair of Bamford and Rodrigo, Leeds could find themselves scrapping for survival in a division they’ve waited 16 years to return to.
Regardless of how successful Bielsa’s Leeds are, they will certainly be an enjoyable side to watch for the neutral assuming Bielsa sticks to his favoured high intensity, attack-minded football.
WEST BROM – AUTOMATICALLY PROMOTED
After finishing bottom of the Premier League in 2017/18, the Baggies make their welcome return to the top flight for the 2020/21 season. Led by Slaven Bilić, West Brom achieved a second-place finish in the Championship despite a four-game winless run to end the season. They looked set to return to the Premier League right from the beginning of last season, boasting a squad which perfectly balanced youth and experience. For many, West Brom are solely a yo-yo club, but Bilić and co will be working tirelessly to ensure they avoid relegation for the coming season.
A Balanced Side
Bilić often opted for a 4-2-3-1 last season, with Jake Livermore and Romaine Sawyers playing pivotal roles in front of the back four. Both men enjoyed stellar seasons last year, but more questions will be asked of them in the coming season, with Sawyers having never played in the Premier League before. West Brom are keen to structure their attacks from the back and bring their exciting attacking-midfielders into the game.
Impressively, the size and physicality of centre-backs Kyle Bartley and Semi Ajayi does not take away from their ball-playing abilities, adding to an impressive 79.3% pass accuracy across the squad last term. It will be interesting to see whether Bilić retreats towards a less progressive system in the top flight however.
Baggies Bagsmen
The Baggies scored 77 goals in the league last season – a tally only bettered by Brentford and Leeds. With top scorers Hal Robson-Kanu and Charlie Austin only managing 10 each, West Brom are clearly a side with plenty of threatening players going forward, 20 players scored in total last season. Matheus Pereira and Grady Diangana both penned permanent deals this summer, and West Brom fans and neutrals alike will certainly be looking forward to seeing how this dynamic pair – who scored 16 goals between them last season – perform in the Premier League.
Pereira will be especially important if West Brom are to succeed in 2020/21, with the winger boasting 17 assists last season, at an average of 0.45 per game. To put this into perspective, Brentford’s famed BMW (Saïd Benrahma, Bryan Mbuemo and Ollie Watkins) only managed 17 assists between them.
One area fans may wish to see recruitment however is in the central striking position. With questions about the abilities of Austin, Robson-Kanu and Zohore (West Brom’s three strikers of choice last season), we can understand why many are calling for a new man to lead the line. Yet, with the likes of Diangana and Pereira behind them, a tenacious poacher may be all the Baggies need to lead them to survival.
After finishing bottom of the Premier League in 2017/18, the Baggies make their welcome return to the top flight for the 2020/21 season. Led by Slaven Bilić, West Brom achieved a second-place finish in the Championship despite a four-game winless run to end the season. They looked set to return to the Premier League right from the beginning of last season, boasting a squad which perfectly balanced youth and experience. For many, West Brom are solely a yo-yo club, but Bilić and co will be working tirelessly to ensure they avoid relegation for the coming season.
A Balanced Side
Bilić often opted for a 4-2-3-1 last season, with Jake Livermore and Romaine Sawyers playing pivotal roles in front of the back four. Both men enjoyed stellar seasons last year, but more questions will be asked of them in the coming season, with Sawyers having never played in the Premier League before. West Brom are keen to structure their attacks from the back and bring their exciting attacking-midfielders into the game.
Impressively, the size and physicality of centre-backs Kyle Bartley and Semi Ajayi does not take away from their ball-playing abilities, adding to an impressive 79.3% pass accuracy across the squad last term. It will be interesting to see whether Bilić retreats towards a less progressive system in the top flight however.
Baggies Bagsmen
The Baggies scored 77 goals in the league last season – a tally only bettered by Brentford and Leeds. With top scorers Hal Robson-Kanu and Charlie Austin only managing 10 each, West Brom are clearly a side with plenty of threatening players going forward, 20 players scored in total last season. Matheus Pereira and Grady Diangana both penned permanent deals this summer, and West Brom fans and neutrals alike will certainly be looking forward to seeing how this dynamic pair – who scored 16 goals between them last season – perform in the Premier League.
Pereira will be especially important if West Brom are to succeed in 2020/21, with the winger boasting 17 assists last season, at an average of 0.45 per game. To put this into perspective, Brentford’s famed BMW (Saïd Benrahma, Bryan Mbuemo and Ollie Watkins) only managed 17 assists between them.
One area fans may wish to see recruitment however is in the central striking position. With questions about the abilities of Austin, Robson-Kanu and Zohore (West Brom’s three strikers of choice last season), we can understand why many are calling for a new man to lead the line. Yet, with the likes of Diangana and Pereira behind them, a tenacious poacher may be all the Baggies need to lead them to survival.
Grady Diangana - celebrating through the phone to his family after promotion was confirmed - had 15 goal involvements in the league last season, and his loan move was made permanent this month after West Brom paid over £12m to West Ham.
Tight affairs
West Brom conceded 45 goals last season – ten more than champions Leeds and seven more than Brentford. However, they never conceded more than two in a league game and also kept 11 clean sheets – over a quarter of these were 0-0 draws though, suggesting they defend at the expense of attacking, and may struggle to run both in conjunction.
Having finally been released from Manchester United in 2018 after loan spells at seven different teams, 27-year-old goalkeeper Sam Johnstone has found some stability at West Brom, playing in all league games both last season and the season before that. The Englishman will be returning to the Premier League with a point to prove, and it would not be surprising to see defensive improvements at West Brom next season.
It is likely Livermore and Sawyers will be far more disciplined next season in front of the defence. The experience the likes of Bartley and Gibbs can provide will be crucial, and when this is paired alongside the development of Ajayi, Darnell Furlong and Nathan Ferguson, it appears that West Brom may encounter fewer defensive problems this season.
How will West Brom perform?
Even with defensive improvements assumed, we believe that West Brom may end up struggling in the Premier League. While securing Pereira and Diangana are huge positives, the lack of activity in the transfer market so far is not encouraging. Goals may be hard to come by, which increases the pressure on the defence and goalkeeper immensely. However, Bilić is a tactically adept manager who gets his players to play with hunger and desire. West Brom will not surrender their Premier League status without a fight.
West Brom conceded 45 goals last season – ten more than champions Leeds and seven more than Brentford. However, they never conceded more than two in a league game and also kept 11 clean sheets – over a quarter of these were 0-0 draws though, suggesting they defend at the expense of attacking, and may struggle to run both in conjunction.
Having finally been released from Manchester United in 2018 after loan spells at seven different teams, 27-year-old goalkeeper Sam Johnstone has found some stability at West Brom, playing in all league games both last season and the season before that. The Englishman will be returning to the Premier League with a point to prove, and it would not be surprising to see defensive improvements at West Brom next season.
It is likely Livermore and Sawyers will be far more disciplined next season in front of the defence. The experience the likes of Bartley and Gibbs can provide will be crucial, and when this is paired alongside the development of Ajayi, Darnell Furlong and Nathan Ferguson, it appears that West Brom may encounter fewer defensive problems this season.
How will West Brom perform?
Even with defensive improvements assumed, we believe that West Brom may end up struggling in the Premier League. While securing Pereira and Diangana are huge positives, the lack of activity in the transfer market so far is not encouraging. Goals may be hard to come by, which increases the pressure on the defence and goalkeeper immensely. However, Bilić is a tactically adept manager who gets his players to play with hunger and desire. West Brom will not surrender their Premier League status without a fight.
FULHAM – PLAY-OFF WINNERS
Fulham were able to make a swift return to the Premier League after only one year away as they gained promotion via the Championship Play-offs last season. A 2-1 win over Brentford secured Scott Parker a well-earned promotion in his first full season as a manager. So, what will the Cottagers offer this season and how will they improve on their last relegation in 2019 where they only picked up 26 points?
Better defensively?
Perhaps an underrated part of Parker’s management so far has been the greater defensive stability they have enjoyed, especially near the back end of last season. Overall, Fulham conceded 48 goals in their 46 league games at a rate of 1.04 goals conceded per game with an xG of 1.33 against per 90. This was bettered by the three teams above them in the table, and it is noteworthy that they only conceded three goals in the play-offs with the last one being a consolation goal in the dying embers of the play-off final.
A big reason for Fulham’s defensive improvements was the arrival of Michael Hector in January and his role as the leader of their defence will be even more important in the Premier League. Given that Fulham were largely freescoring throughout the season, Hector helped to assure a leaky defence. After his arrival in January, Fulham won 13, drew six and only lost five, which ultimately paved the way to their promotion. Parker’s side will have to do a lot more defending next season and the role of Hector in that cannot be understated.
Mitro’s on fire
As always, Alexander Mitrovic was a lethal goalscorer in the Championship as he scored 26 goals at an xG of 24.36. To outperform your xG over the course of a gruelling 46 game campaign is extremely impressive and he has shown in the past that he’s able to score goals in the Premier League, although predictably at a much lower scoring rate. In his Premier League career, Mitrovic has scored 21 goals in 77 appearances, which isn’t too bad for someone that has played predominately at struggling sides.
It is without doubt that Mitrovic is a prolific goalscorer, yet his disciplinary problems can sometimes cause problems. This was on display after his infamous elbow to the face of Leeds defender Ben White at the end of last season, which resulted in a three-game ban. However, it was notable that during the Serbian’s absence, Fulham won all three matches and scored four goals. Parker will be hoping that the likes of Bobby Reid and Aboubakar Kamara will provide extra goals to compliment Mitrovic as the main goalscorer in the team.
Fulham were able to make a swift return to the Premier League after only one year away as they gained promotion via the Championship Play-offs last season. A 2-1 win over Brentford secured Scott Parker a well-earned promotion in his first full season as a manager. So, what will the Cottagers offer this season and how will they improve on their last relegation in 2019 where they only picked up 26 points?
Better defensively?
Perhaps an underrated part of Parker’s management so far has been the greater defensive stability they have enjoyed, especially near the back end of last season. Overall, Fulham conceded 48 goals in their 46 league games at a rate of 1.04 goals conceded per game with an xG of 1.33 against per 90. This was bettered by the three teams above them in the table, and it is noteworthy that they only conceded three goals in the play-offs with the last one being a consolation goal in the dying embers of the play-off final.
A big reason for Fulham’s defensive improvements was the arrival of Michael Hector in January and his role as the leader of their defence will be even more important in the Premier League. Given that Fulham were largely freescoring throughout the season, Hector helped to assure a leaky defence. After his arrival in January, Fulham won 13, drew six and only lost five, which ultimately paved the way to their promotion. Parker’s side will have to do a lot more defending next season and the role of Hector in that cannot be understated.
Mitro’s on fire
As always, Alexander Mitrovic was a lethal goalscorer in the Championship as he scored 26 goals at an xG of 24.36. To outperform your xG over the course of a gruelling 46 game campaign is extremely impressive and he has shown in the past that he’s able to score goals in the Premier League, although predictably at a much lower scoring rate. In his Premier League career, Mitrovic has scored 21 goals in 77 appearances, which isn’t too bad for someone that has played predominately at struggling sides.
It is without doubt that Mitrovic is a prolific goalscorer, yet his disciplinary problems can sometimes cause problems. This was on display after his infamous elbow to the face of Leeds defender Ben White at the end of last season, which resulted in a three-game ban. However, it was notable that during the Serbian’s absence, Fulham won all three matches and scored four goals. Parker will be hoping that the likes of Bobby Reid and Aboubakar Kamara will provide extra goals to compliment Mitrovic as the main goalscorer in the team.
The Serbian has 21 career Premier League goals to his name. He will play a pivotal role in Fulham's survival hopes.
Learning from old mistakes?
In the summer preceding 2018/19 season, many raised their eyebrows at the influx of players being brought into Fulham as they spent just over £100 million. A lot of these signings didn’t work, and it led to a team that never worked well together and struggled throughout. After Aston Villa’s similar spending spree at the beginning of last season, they were labelled ‘the new Fulham’, as they also spent over £100 million and only stayed up via goal difference.
However, after this season’s promotion Fulham have been less active in the window. They have been able to acquire the full-time services of Anthony Knockaert and Harrison Reed who both played key roles in the team last season and have made astute additions alongside that. These include signings such as Kenny Tete, Antonee Robinson, Mario Lemina and Alphonse Areola for a combined fee of £7 million.
How will Fulham perform?
The coronavirus may have forced this restrictive transfer policy with Fulham having been much quieter in this window and choosing to keep the core group of players together. It will be intriguing to see if this model works, especially considering the failure of the 2018/19 season.
Scott Parker will continue to have to learn on the job, though despite lacking in the experience department, Parker has commanded the respect of a dressing room packed with influential names. Importance will be placed on the shoulders of Mitrovic to ensure goals flow for the Cottagers, and he will need to stay fit – and firing – for Fulham to stay up this season. Survival will be a big ask, but it is the ultimate aim for the south London club.
In the summer preceding 2018/19 season, many raised their eyebrows at the influx of players being brought into Fulham as they spent just over £100 million. A lot of these signings didn’t work, and it led to a team that never worked well together and struggled throughout. After Aston Villa’s similar spending spree at the beginning of last season, they were labelled ‘the new Fulham’, as they also spent over £100 million and only stayed up via goal difference.
However, after this season’s promotion Fulham have been less active in the window. They have been able to acquire the full-time services of Anthony Knockaert and Harrison Reed who both played key roles in the team last season and have made astute additions alongside that. These include signings such as Kenny Tete, Antonee Robinson, Mario Lemina and Alphonse Areola for a combined fee of £7 million.
How will Fulham perform?
The coronavirus may have forced this restrictive transfer policy with Fulham having been much quieter in this window and choosing to keep the core group of players together. It will be intriguing to see if this model works, especially considering the failure of the 2018/19 season.
Scott Parker will continue to have to learn on the job, though despite lacking in the experience department, Parker has commanded the respect of a dressing room packed with influential names. Importance will be placed on the shoulders of Mitrovic to ensure goals flow for the Cottagers, and he will need to stay fit – and firing – for Fulham to stay up this season. Survival will be a big ask, but it is the ultimate aim for the south London club.
With thanks to: SS Analytics
Written and edited by: 3-At-The-Back
Written and edited by: 3-At-The-Back